COVID-19 mobility restrictions and stay-at-home behaviour in 2020 were associated with higher retail food prices worldwide.

COVID-19 policy responses have included mobility restrictions, and many people have chosen to stay at home to avoid exposure. These actions have ambiguous impacts on food prices, lowering demand for food away from home and perishables, while increasing supply costs for items where workers are most affected by the pandemic. We use evidence from 160 countries to identify the net direction and magnitude of association between countries' real cost of all food and mobility restriction stringency. We investigate the deviation of each month's price level in 2020 from that month's average price level during the previous three years and find that an increase in mobility restriction stringency from no restrictions to most restrictive is associated with an increase in the real cost of all food of more than one percentage point across all models. We then examine the relationship between retail food price levels by food group and stay-at-home behaviour around markets in 36 countries and find positive associations for non-perishables, dairy and eggs.

Retail prices of nutritious food rose more in countries with higher COVID-19 case counts.

The COVID-19 pandemic has curtailed lives and livelihoods, leading to price spikes for some foods and declines for others. We compare monthly retail food prices in up to 181 countries from January 2019 to June 2021, test for differences over time and find that average prices rose significantly, especially for more nutritious food groups in countries with higher COVID-19 case counts. Analysis of retail prices by food group complements data on farm commodity prices and overall consumer price indexes, helping to guide policy for resilience and response to shocks.